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CFTC positioning: USD as Iran hedge

Chart: dollar weighted exposure in million dollars versus number of non-commercial participants (speculators)
large dot: most recent
small dots: last year
grey dots: last 10 years
green: long
red: short
src: BBG, Merk

3w into conflict, gas prices on higher trajectory than in 2022 (Ukraine invasion). WTI 1M/6M spread off peak inversion, so are implied vols for WTI. 2YR inflation expectations on similar trajectory as 2022. LT inflation exp not reacting much -> long-end real rates are up

Interested in a new Porsche? Head to Lamu, Kenya...

Thousands of luxury cars are sitting in storage in Kenya. Ships scheduled for Dubai have been diverted to sit out the war. Over 4000 vehicles arrived so far, with another 5000 expected in the coming days
arabnews.com/node/2636983/b…

Separately, Germany is building its own version of the NSA.

Germany's intelligence service is vastly expanding what has to date been a small section.
sueddeutsche.de/politik/bnd-bo…

Germany to ease weapons export restrictions for 6 months to support Gulf states & Ukraine, according to @BR24.

Previously, every single transaction had to be approved, now focus on reporting requirements.

just a reminder that tomorrow is "quadruple witching"

volatility today may in part be attributed to the hedging of options traders

WTI versus Brent crude -- the lower pane shows the spread.
src: BBG