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Folks are starting to understand Warsh. He said recent inflation numbers did not convince him inflation is coming down at a sufficient pace. It rightfully increases odds of a rake hike, but does not mean he will necessarily raise rates. It's a reflection as to where we are. 👏

Who says markets are efficient - took almost 2 hours to have a hawkish Fed sink in. $gold -2.5% now intra-day.

When "everyone" says Warsh is a dove, some started to believe it. x.com/AxelMerk/statu…

For the nerds: Warsh's speech had 18 footnotes. This is an academic conference, after all. He quoted everyone from Bernanke to his former mentor George Schultz.

As I paste the footnotes below, X appears to zoom in on the Chuck Yeager quotes - so there's that.

Warsh:
- labor market is strong
- inflation too high
- latest inflation numbers didn't convince him on sufficient downward trend
- "work to be done"

If you don't know what this means, no one can help you.

$gold intra-day. Given the significant repricing of rate hike odds in September, the fact that gold is down less than 1% is noteworthy.
Market is pricing in 2nd rate hike now in 2027.
src: BBG

Warsh managed to focus the discussion -- and that may well be the biggest achievement after the noise of recent weeks.

September rate hike now priced in.
Src: BBG