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"The welfare state ends when you run out of other people’s children." literally. @JohnHCochrane 👇
grumpy-economist.com/p/saving-the-w…

Just had a good discussion with @carolmassar & @timsteno on @BloombergTV. The conversation quickly zoomed in on Kevin... -- and why I believe many in the market continue to misread him.
Somewhat puzzling as Kevin is very clear - if one only listens to what he says. x.com/AxelMerk/statu…

Alan Blinder argues a Nobel Prize was awarded for forward guidance. With due respect, um, no.
Blinder confuses forward guidance with reaction function. Of course it is helpful to have a reaction function - part of the reason the Fed hasn't published a formal one is that it would

Always a challenge to muse real time as to *why* the price of gold moves. Part of it is because drivers are changing. Late in the week it felt like a classic initial risk off burst — bonds rallying, risk assets declining, dragging gold along. x.com/ronstoeferle/s…

In a year from now the price of $gold will be

WSJ's @RichardRubinDC lists social security reform proposals:
* increase retirement age: still bust, long-range gap shrinks
* end tax cap: delays insolvency by 24 years
* raise tax cap: shrinks gap, delays insolvency by 2 years
* lower benefit adjustment: still bust, shrinks gap

Vive la France!
10yr spread between France and Germany
Source: Bloomberg