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ICYMI: China's central bank continues to buy gold.
"The country's gold holdings rose to 74.38 million fine troy ounces by the end of ​March from the previous month's 74.22 million."
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

Let’s assume Iran will impose a hefty transit fee, creating incentive for others to build new pipelines. It also increases pressure for the world to diversify their energy supply.
-> the market will "solve" this over medium term regardless of how this plays out. Am I wrong?

The market priced as a short-term shock, not structural change: bond yields rose, but long-term inflation expectations did not -> real yields moved rose, a headwind to price of gold. x.com/3crowns21/stat…

Dad advice to my daughter.

“5/15..the [oil] storage..deficit becomes mathematically irreversible for winter 26/27... rationing...”
“On 4/28,..spring nitrogen application window closes. No ceasefire..after..can restore '26 crop yields.”
“ceasefire by 4/14..constitutes cascade deceleration [not recovery].“ x.com/vtchakarova/st…

At tonight's 8pm ET deadline

If I were betting, I’d say that after today’s deadline, a ground invasion of Kharg Island is coming. That would align with today’s bombing of the island; a serious escalation without targeting civilian infrastructure. And Trump would have succeeded in distracting.